This report, written by 3 authors at London Economics and published by the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) and Kaplan International, is an econometric analysis forecasting the impact of Brexit and other global changes on demand at UK universities from international students. It focuses on the key factors that fuel demand, but also shows the econometric dynamics that underpin these factors. The analysis was undertaken at undergraduate and postgraduate level. Using a range of data on UK higher education enrolments from 2003/04 to 2014/15 from 189 countries, the analysis indicates that there are a range of factors that determine demand for UK higher education. These include domestic factors, such as UK fee levels, but also external factors including the exchange rate, fee levels charged by competitor countries, energy prices, overseas economic growth and policy interventions within a country. The authors argue that if all the indirect and induced effects on the wider UK economy associated with the income from international students are taken into account, then the estimate of potential loss for the UK economy is around GBP 2 billion per year.

Higher Education Policy Institute